IMD Forecasts 90% Rainfall for 2026 Monsoon with Delayed June Onset
On May 29, 2026, the India Meteorological Department revised its monsoon outlook to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), signaling a 'below normal' season. While rainfall was initially expected by May 26, the onset in Kerala is now projected for the first week of June, forcing a rethink of Kharif sowing schedules.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) categorizes the 2026 Southwest Monsoon as ‘below normal’ at 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA). Calculated using 1971-2020 data, the LPA serves as the benchmark for national rainfall expectations. The shift in arrival—from May 26 to the first week of June—directly influences the sowing windows for moisture-sensitive staples like paddy and cotton.
Economic stakes remain high, prompting the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare to initiate contingency protocols. During the Kharif Conference in Delhi, officials pivoted toward drought-resistant crop varieties and optimized irrigation management to counter potential El Nino effects. This 90% threshold acts as the primary trigger for state governments to finalize resource allocation and farmer advisories.
| Metric | 2026 Forecast Status |
|---|---|
| Rainfall Percentage | 90% of LPA |
| LPA Baseline | 1971-2020 |
| Revised Onset | First Week of June 2026 |
| Original Onset | May 26, 2026 |
Glossary
LPA: Long Period Average; the 50-year rainfall mean used to categorize monsoon performance as normal or otherwise.
Kharif Season: The summer-sown cropping season (June-July) crucial for India's food security.
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